Mr. Engel believes that one of the main reasons for the lack of the solution of the conflict is not the Minsk Group (one of the tasks of which is to formulate avenues for solution) but the current stance of Azerbaijan and the fact that the compromise solution seems to be far from reality.

“The problem with the avenues of solution is that any scenario other than ‘everything goes to Azerbaijan’ is not going to be accepted by Azerbaijan. And Nagorno-Karabakh will never accept being ruled by Azerbaijan again – this is not only applicable to Karabakh, but it applies to the present-day NKR (11,4 sq km) which is something else than it was in 1990s…”, – said the MEP. 

Mr. Engel doesn’t find it at all probable that the NKR could go back to the borders of the Autonomous Oblast of Nagorno-Karabakh (NKAO) as it was in the Soviet Union.

“I understand perfectly that the people of Karabakh, given the circumstances, would not be in the position to accept being encircled by Azerbaijan again… this is a security issue for them. Under those circumstances there is really not very much else that we need to talk about. There are facts in life that one simply has to accept, and Karabakh is one of those facts”, – said the MEP, emphasizing that Azerbaijan has to accept that it has lost the war.

Commenting on the response of the EU and other third parties to the 4-day war in April, which often drew a false equation sign between the aggressor Azerbaijan and the Armenian side instead of directly condemning Azerbaijan’s attack, Mr. Engel said that this most probably will remain the formal rhetoric for quite some time. According to him this is because there are other similar conflicts such as Ukraine, South Ossetia and Abkhasia and they should try to keep a consistent approach to all these conflicts.

To the question as to whether there will be a stronger international reaction in case the Azeris (who want to completely wipe the Armenians from the region, unlike Georgians in the case of the Abkhaz or Ossetians) tomorrow attack Karabakh and Stepanakert, Mr. Engel answered,

“I’m afraid until that happens nothing is going to change, regrettably… I believe if we saw that April events were repeated any time soon then people would start moving, but it’s extremely sad and it’s extremely cynical in fact to have to wait for another large-scale attack for people to get together and say that something is wrong there.”      

For preventing future Azeri aggression the MEP particularly emphasized the importance of the OSCE ceasefire monitoring mechanisms, noting that Azerbaijan has repeatedly been rejecting these mechanisms because they knew they would be caught if these were in place. “I am relatively convinced that if we use all the technological means at our disposal we will quickly find out who aggresses here and who doesn’t”, – he added, saying that the EU should strongly push for the implementation of the observation mechanism and to make it clear that who doesn’t accept this will be suffering consequences.

“Everyone knows that there is only one party (Azerbaijan) that has an objective interest in violating the ceasefire, but this can only be sunk into the consciousness of European political decision-makers if there is objective verification and if it becomes clear that the shots come from one side only”, – he said.  

The MEP also noted that in the EU there is a problem of awareness of what Azerbaijan is and how Azerbaijan functions – this knowledge is not sufficiently developed in European political institutions including among those who indulge in foreign policy, although EU does hold debates on Azerbaijan’s deplorable human rights situation which makes Azerbaijan highly nervous. 

 “Azerbaijan is basically a kleptocratic dictatorship, which has willingly and knowingly withheld redistribution and development from its people just to keep them alert to getting Karabakh back. That is something which in the same density and intensity is not to be found elsewhere. This means that we would really have to kneel on Azerbaijan in principle in order to tell them that at some point the fun is over and if ever a war of aggression took place on a larger scale than what we have seen, there would be massive retributions directed at the aggressor”, – said Frank Engel.

Mr. Engel also believes that the current regime in Azerbaijan needs to sustain the Karabakh conflict in order to stay in power.

“If the Karabakh issue disappeared from Azeri politics the current regime would break down. Then there would be nothing left for the Aliyev family to hold on to, and people would start demanding fair distribution of oil revenues, asking why there is no decent housing, no freedom of opinion and no nothing. So they desperately need the Karabakh conflict to continue in order to sustain themselves in power. And this concludes the circle – this is why they will never accept compromise”, – he said. 

Mr. Engel believes that the Karabakh conflict is a part of a bigger picture which includes also Turkey and that this issue should be brought on the EU-Turkey agenda.

“If I hear Erdogan saying ‘we will stand by Azerbaijan until the end’, that tells me two things – first of all, nothing is done in Baku which Ankara isn’t aware of and secondly, ‘until the end’ means something other than signing a peace treaty. We would be well advised to put this on our Turkish agenda as well”, – he said adding that in this context it is also important that Turkey comes to terms with its past and recognizes the Armenian Genocide as well as refrains from being equated with Azerbaijan.

“Turkey must recognize at the end of the day that it is ridiculing itself if it descends to the same league and to the same level as Azerbaijan. This cannot be the model that Turkey would want to embrace”, – said Frank Engel.

 Interview by Nvard Chalikyan  

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